Sheffield Utdvs
Derby
COMPLETEDEngland · Championship · 10/24/2026, 11:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sheffield Utd · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Sheffield Utd 2-0 Derby, with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
Sheffield Utd 1-1 Derby
Original prediction
Sheffield Utd
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:38 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.77 | 52.8% | 54.7% | 1.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.74 | 25.0% | 25.0% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 4.23 | 22.1% | 20.3% | -1.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.74 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.9 pts
Projected Score
Sheffield Utd 2–0 Derby
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
Sheffield Utd
Probability
54.7%
Model confidence
54.7%
Sheffield Utd has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Sheffield UtdWLWLL
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
DerbyLLDDL
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
Sheffield UtdDerby
45.5Attack27.3
57.6Defence39.4
45.5Form18.2
51.3Power31.0
1.88xG0.59