Sheffield Utdvs
Bolton
COMPLETEDEngland · Championship · 9/1/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sheffield Utd · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (15%), 1-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sheffield Utd 3-2 Bolton
Original prediction
Sheffield Utd
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.64 | 57.3% | 42.4% | -14.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.91 | 24.1% | 28.5% | 4.4 pts |
| Away | 5.08 | 18.6% | 29.1% | 10.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.64 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-14.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–015%
- 3.1–013%
Predicted outcome
Sheffield Utd
Probability
42.4%
Model confidence
42.4%
Sheffield Utd has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60
GF 3 · GA 3 · avg 0.60/0.60