Sevastopolvs
Spartak Nalchik
COMPLETEDRussia · Second League - Group 1 · 8/29/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sevastopol · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (15%), 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sevastopol 1-0 Spartak Nalchik
Original prediction
Sevastopol
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.50 | 60.7% | 54.9% | -5.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.24 | 21.4% | 24.5% | 3.1 pts |
| Away | 5.07 | 17.9% | 20.5% | 2.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.50 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–015%
- 2.1–114%
- 3.0–013%
Predicted outcome
Sevastopol
Probability
54.9%
Model confidence
54.9%
Sevastopol has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 7 · avg 2.40/1.40
GF 8 · GA 13 · avg 1.60/2.60