Sevastopolvs
Izberbash
COMPLETEDRussia · Second League - Group 1 · 10/17/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sevastopol · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Projected score: Sevastopol 3-0 Izberbash, with an exact score probability of 18%.
Prediction record
Final result
Sevastopol 2-2 Izberbash
Original prediction
Sevastopol
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 17 September 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.25 | 72.4% | 88.3% | 15.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.70 | 19.2% | 8.7% | -10.5 pts |
| Away | 10.67 | 8.5% | 3.0% | -5.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.70 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
15.9 pts
Projected Score
Sevastopol 3–0 Izberbash
Exact score probability: 18%
Predicted outcome
Sevastopol
Probability
88.3%
Model confidence
88.3%
Sevastopol has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SevastopolWWWWW
GF 14 · GA 2 · avg 2.80/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
IzberbashLDDWL
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
SevastopolIzberbash
66.7Attack28.2
74.4Defence17.9
80.8Form29.5
74.7Power28.5
3.74xG0.35