Sertanensevs
Mortágua
SCHEDULEDPortugal · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C · 8/23/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sertanense · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Sertanense are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LWLLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Mortágua are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLLWL), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and sertanense hold a 2.7-point power-rating edge (51.9 v 49.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely result in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C, favouring Sertanense with 20.2% confidence, a 32% BTTS chance and 23% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Sertanense
Probability
40.8%
Model confidence
20.2%
Sertanense has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20