Seattle Soundersvs
Sporting Kansas City
COMPLETEDUSA · Major League Soccer · 10/2/2026, 1:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Seattle Sounders · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Seattle Sounders 2-1 Sporting Kansas City
Original prediction
Seattle Sounders
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 2 September 2026 at 00:13 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.52 | 61.9% | 51.4% | -10.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.64 | 20.3% | 25.2% | 5.0 pts |
| Away | 5.26 | 17.8% | 23.4% | 5.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.52 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–011%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–19%
Predicted outcome
Seattle Sounders
Probability
51.4%
Model confidence
51.4%
Seattle Sounders has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
GF 11 · GA 12 · avg 2.20/2.40