Seattle Soundersvs
Minnesota United FC
COMPLETEDUSA · Major League Soccer · 9/27/2026, 12:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Seattle Sounders · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Seattle Sounders 3-1 Minnesota United FC
Original prediction
Seattle Sounders
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:18 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.04 | 45.8% | 40.4% | -5.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.72 | 25.1% | 28.3% | 3.2 pts |
| Away | 3.21 | 29.1% | 31.3% | 2.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.04 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Seattle Sounders
Probability
40.4%
Model confidence
40.4%
Seattle Sounders has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
GF 12 · GA 17 · avg 2.40/3.40