Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Scotland · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (15%), 1-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Scotland 1-2 Slovenia
Original prediction
Scotland
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 18:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.79 | 52.6% | 39.5% | -13.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.35 | 28.2% | 29.8% | 1.6 pts |
| Away | 4.90 | 19.2% | 30.7% | 11.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–015%
- 3.1–012%
Predicted outcome
Scotland
Probability
39.5%
Model confidence
39.5%
Scotland has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ScotlandWLDWW
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
SloveniaLWDLD
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
ScotlandSlovenia
22.2Attack33.3
66.7Defence77.8
44.4Form44.4
45.9Power53.1
1.01xG0.99