Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
SC Braga · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction details
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: -| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.84 | 50.2% | 41.2% | -9.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.51 | 26.3% | 28.1% | 1.8 pts |
| Away | 3.93 | 23.5% | 30.7% | 7.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 - · Draw - · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–09%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
SC Braga
Probability
41.2%
Model confidence
41.2%
SC Braga has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SC BragaLWLLL
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
FamalicaoWLLWD
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
SC BragaFamalicao
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
1.43xG1.22