Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
SC Braga · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (13%), 2-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
SC Braga 1-0 Estoril
Original prediction
SC Braga
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.42 | 66.2% | 54.3% | -11.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.45 | 21.2% | 24.9% | 3.7 pts |
| Away | 7.43 | 12.7% | 20.8% | 8.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.42 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.2–011%
Predicted outcome
SC Braga
Probability
54.3%
Model confidence
54.3%
SC Braga has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SC BragaLWWDW
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
EstorilDLLLD
GF 2 · GA 7 · avg 0.40/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
SC BragaEstoril
50.0Attack13.3
58.3Defence53.3
58.3Form13.3
58.8Power30.2
1.61xG0.84