Sassuolo Wvs
Napoli W
COMPLETEDItaly · Serie A Women · 10/17/2026, 10:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sassuolo W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sassuolo W 1-4 Napoli W
Original prediction
Sassuolo W
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 07:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.63 | 34.2% | 37.8% | 3.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.22 | 28.0% | 27.1% | -0.9 pts |
| Away | 2.38 | 37.9% | 35.1% | -2.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Sassuolo W
Probability
37.8%
Model confidence
37.8%
Sassuolo W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 12 · avg 1.00/2.40
GF 5 · GA 15 · avg 1.00/3.00