Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sassuolo · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sassuolo 2-1 Torino
Original prediction
Sassuolo
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.28 | 41.6% | 39.3% | -2.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.25 | 29.2% | 28.7% | -0.5 pts |
| Away | 3.25 | 29.2% | 32.0% | 2.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.28 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Sassuolo
Probability
39.3%
Model confidence
39.3%
Sassuolo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SassuoloLWLLD
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
TorinoLWDWL
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
SassuoloTorino
33.3Attack33.3
33.3Defence33.3
0.0Form0.0
23.7Power23.7
1.37xG1.17