Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Juventus · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (9%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sassuolo 3-2 Juventus
Original prediction
Juventus
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.36 | 17.7% | 29.9% | 12.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.95 | 24.0% | 26.8% | 2.8 pts |
| Away | 1.63 | 58.3% | 43.3% | -15.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–19%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Juventus
Probability
43.3%
Model confidence
43.3%
Juventus has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SassuoloDDWLW
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
JuventusDWWWL
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
SassuoloJuventus
55.6Attack44.4
44.4Defence88.9
44.4Form77.8
51.1Power72.8
1.21xG1.34