Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AC Milan · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sassuolo 1-1 AC Milan
Original prediction
AC Milan
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 11 September 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.25 | 22.4% | 26.4% | 4.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.72 | 25.6% | 25.1% | -0.5 pts |
| Away | 1.83 | 52.0% | 48.4% | -3.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.72 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
AC Milan
Probability
48.4%
Model confidence
48.4%
AC Milan has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SassuoloLWDDW
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
AC MilanWLDDW
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
SassuoloAC Milan
60.0Attack66.7
40.0Defence73.3
46.7Form73.3
51.9Power72.0
1.19xG1.76