Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sao Paulo · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Sao Paulo 1-0 Vitoria, with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
Sao Paulo 2-1 Vitoria
Original prediction
Sao Paulo
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 11 September 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.64 | 57.6% | 48.8% | -8.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.74 | 25.2% | 27.9% | 2.7 pts |
| Away | 5.47 | 17.2% | 23.4% | 6.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.64 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.8 pts
Projected Score
Sao Paulo 1–0 Vitoria
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
Sao Paulo
Probability
48.8%
Model confidence
48.8%
Sao Paulo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Sao PauloLLWDL
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
VitoriaWLDWL
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Sao PauloVitoria
37.9Attack36.8
60.9Defence51.7
41.4Form41.4
48.7Power44.7
1.19xG0.78