Sao Paulovs
Vasco DA Gama
COMPLETEDBrazil · Serie A · 10/18/2026, 12:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sao Paulo · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (14%), 0-0 (14%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sao Paulo 1-0 Vasco DA Gama
Original prediction
Sao Paulo
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 00:24 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.14 | 44.1% | 45.4% | 1.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.31 | 28.5% | 27.5% | -1.0 pts |
| Away | 3.44 | 27.4% | 27.1% | -0.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.14 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–014%
- 3.0–014%
Predicted outcome
Sao Paulo
Probability
45.4%
Model confidence
45.4%
Sao Paulo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
GF 10 · GA 1 · avg 2.00/0.20