Sao Paulovs
Atletico-MG
COMPLETEDBrazil · Serie A · 9/5/2026, 9:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sao Paulo · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Sao Paulo 0-0 Atletico-MG, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Sao Paulo 2-0 Atletico-MG
Original prediction
Sao Paulo
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:22 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.12 | 44.3% | 38.4% | -5.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.20 | 29.3% | 29.2% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 3.56 | 26.4% | 32.4% | 6.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.12 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.9 pts
Projected Score
Sao Paulo 0–0 Atletico-MG
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Sao Paulo
Probability
38.4%
Model confidence
38.4%
Sao Paulo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Sao PauloWLWDD
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
Atletico-MGWWDDD
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
Sao PauloAtletico-MG
40.3Attack44.4
61.1Defence61.1
41.7Form50.0
49.6Power53.0
0.99xG0.96