Santurtzivs
Lagun Onak
COMPLETEDSpain · Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · 9/27/2026, 9:15:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Santurtzi · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Santurtzi 0-1 Lagun Onak
Original prediction
Santurtzi
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 September 2026 at 00:39 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.62 | 34.1% | 37.6% | 3.4 pts |
| Draw | 2.88 | 31.1% | 28.7% | -2.3 pts |
| Away | 2.57 | 34.8% | 33.7% | -1.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Santurtzi
Probability
37.6%
Model confidence
37.6%
Santurtzi has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/3.00
GF 2 · GA 2 · avg 2.00/2.00