Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Flamengo · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 0-2 (12%), 0-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Santos 2-2 Flamengo
Original prediction
Flamengo
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 8 September 2026 at 00:19 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.24 | 22.2% | 19.4% | -2.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.77 | 25.0% | 23.1% | -1.9 pts |
| Away | 1.78 | 52.8% | 57.5% | 4.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.77 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.0–212%
- 3.0–112%
Predicted outcome
Flamengo
Probability
57.5%
Model confidence
57.5%
Flamengo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SantosWWLWW
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
FlamengoWDWWW
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
SantosFlamengo
51.2Attack65.5
51.2Defence72.6
48.8Form71.4
52.3Power69.4
0.85xG1.84