Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Santos · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Santos 2-1 Cruzeiro
Original prediction
Santos
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.70 | 34.9% | 38.2% | 3.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.37 | 28.0% | 25.9% | -2.1 pts |
| Away | 2.54 | 37.1% | 35.9% | -1.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.70 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Santos
Probability
38.2%
Model confidence
38.2%
Santos has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SantosWWDWL
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
CruzeiroWLLDW
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
SantosCruzeiro
49.3Attack48.7
49.3Defence52.6
42.7Form53.8
48.9Power53.6
1.48xG1.37