Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Santos · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Santos 1-1 Bahia
Original prediction
Santos
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 00:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.84 | 51.1% | 42.8% | -8.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.92 | 24.0% | 24.1% | 0.1 pts |
| Away | 3.78 | 24.9% | 33.1% | 8.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.92 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Santos
Probability
42.8%
Model confidence
42.8%
Santos has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SantosWLDWW
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
BahiaLWLLW
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
SantosBahia
51.6Attack47.3
50.5Defence58.1
48.4Form52.7
52.2Power54.7
1.38xG1.29