Santa Claravs
Rio Ave
COMPLETEDPortugal · Primeira Liga · 9/6/2026, 2:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Santa Clara · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (14%), 2-0 (12%), 1-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Santa Clara 4-0 Rio Ave
Original prediction
Santa Clara
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.86 | 50.5% | 52.1% | 1.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.31 | 28.4% | 26.5% | -1.9 pts |
| Away | 4.45 | 21.1% | 21.4% | 0.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.86 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–014%
- 2.2–012%
- 3.1–112%
Predicted outcome
Santa Clara
Probability
52.1%
Model confidence
52.1%
Santa Clara has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60