Santa Claravs
Benfica
COMPLETEDPortugal · Primeira Liga · 10/26/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Benfica · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 0-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Santa Clara 1-2 Benfica
Original prediction
Benfica
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 9.27 | 10.2% | 26.6% | 16.5 pts |
| Draw | 5.32 | 17.7% | 26.3% | 8.5 pts |
| Away | 1.31 | 72.1% | 47.1% | -25.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.31 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-25.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–012%
- 3.0–112%
Predicted outcome
Benfica
Probability
47.1%
Model confidence
47.1%
Benfica has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
GF 13 · GA 5 · avg 2.60/1.00