San Lorenzo Res.vs
Sarmiento Res.
COMPLETEDArgentina · Reserve League · 10/15/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
San Lorenzo Res. · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: San Lorenzo Res. 0-0 Sarmiento Res., with an exact score probability of 21%.
Prediction record
Final result
San Lorenzo Res. 1-1 Sarmiento Res.
Original prediction
San Lorenzo Res.
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.96 | 45.6% | 39.3% | -6.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.06 | 29.2% | 31.7% | 2.5 pts |
| Away | 3.53 | 25.3% | 29.0% | 3.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.06 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.2 pts
Projected Score
San Lorenzo Res. 0–0 Sarmiento Res.
Exact score probability: 21%
Predicted outcome
San Lorenzo Res.
Probability
39.3%
Model confidence
39.3%
San Lorenzo Res. has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20