San Jose Earthquakesvs
Portland Timbers
COMPLETEDUSA · Major League Soccer · 9/27/2026, 2:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
San Jose Earthquakes · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 3-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
San Jose Earthquakes 3-1 Portland Timbers
Original prediction
San Jose Earthquakes
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:18 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.96 | 47.8% | 43.8% | -4.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.90 | 24.0% | 26.5% | 2.5 pts |
| Away | 3.33 | 28.1% | 29.7% | 1.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.96 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.3–17%
Predicted outcome
San Jose Earthquakes
Probability
43.8%
Model confidence
43.8%
San Jose Earthquakes has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
GF 9 · GA 11 · avg 1.80/2.20