San Jose Earthquakesvs
Los Angeles FC
COMPLETEDUSA · Major League Soccer · 9/19/2026, 11:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Los Angeles FC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
San Jose Earthquakes 2-2 Los Angeles FC
Original prediction
Los Angeles FC
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.87 | 32.5% | 35.3% | 2.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.74 | 24.9% | 24.2% | -0.8 pts |
| Away | 2.19 | 42.6% | 40.5% | -2.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.74 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Los Angeles FC
Probability
40.5%
Model confidence
40.5%
Los Angeles FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20