San Jose Earthquakesvs
Houston Dynamo
COMPLETEDUSA · Major League Soccer · 9/13/2026, 2:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
San Jose Earthquakes · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
San Jose Earthquakes 1-0 Houston Dynamo
Original prediction
San Jose Earthquakes
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.39 | 39.2% | 37.6% | -1.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.55 | 26.4% | 28.8% | 2.4 pts |
| Away | 2.72 | 34.4% | 33.6% | -0.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.39 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
San Jose Earthquakes
Probability
37.6%
Model confidence
37.6%
San Jose Earthquakes has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 0.80/0.60