San Diegovs
San Jose Earthquakes
COMPLETEDUSA · Major League Soccer · 9/10/2026, 2:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
San Diego · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
San Diego 2-3 San Jose Earthquakes
Original prediction
San Diego
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.75 | 53.6% | 41.8% | -11.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.17 | 22.6% | 26.9% | 4.3 pts |
| Away | 3.95 | 23.8% | 31.3% | 7.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
San Diego
Probability
41.8%
Model confidence
41.8%
San Diego has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
GF 3 · GA 10 · avg 0.60/2.00