San Diegovs
Philadelphia Union
COMPLETEDUSA · Major League Soccer · 9/14/2026, 1:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
San Diego · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
San Diego 0-5 Philadelphia Union
Original prediction
San Diego
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 31 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.63 | 35.5% | 38.5% | 3.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.73 | 25.1% | 27.2% | 2.2 pts |
| Away | 2.37 | 39.5% | 34.3% | -5.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
San Diego
Probability
38.5%
Model confidence
38.5%
San Diego has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
GF 13 · GA 4 · avg 2.60/0.80