San Diegovs
Houston Dynamo
COMPLETEDUSA · Major League Soccer · 10/15/2026, 2:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
San Diego · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
San Diego 3-3 Houston Dynamo
Original prediction
San Diego
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 00:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.04 | 46.1% | 37.9% | -8.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.64 | 25.8% | 28.4% | 2.6 pts |
| Away | 3.34 | 28.1% | 33.7% | 5.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.64 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
San Diego
Probability
37.9%
Model confidence
37.9%
San Diego has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 17 · avg 1.60/3.40
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60