Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Samtredia · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Samtredia 3-0 Sioni
Original prediction
Samtredia
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 17:13 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.74 | 51.8% | 42.7% | -9.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.66 | 24.7% | 28.2% | 3.5 pts |
| Away | 3.86 | 23.4% | 29.2% | 5.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.74 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Samtredia
Probability
42.7%
Model confidence
42.7%
Samtredia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SamtrediaLWLWW
GF 15 · GA 4 · avg 3.00/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
SioniLLDDW
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
SamtrediaSioni
59.3Attack43.2
50.6Defence58.0
45.7Form40.7
51.5Power48.9
1.62xG1.16