Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Gareji · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (13%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Samtredia 6-1 Gareji
Original prediction
Gareji
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.95 | 46.4% | 30.1% | -16.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.52 | 25.8% | 25.8% | -0.0 pts |
| Away | 3.26 | 27.8% | 44.1% | 16.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
16.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–113%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Gareji
Probability
44.1%
Model confidence
44.1%
Gareji has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SamtrediaWWWWW
GF 10 · GA 0 · avg 2.00/0.00
BTTS 0/5O2.5 2/5
GarejiDWWLD
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
SamtrediaGareji
51.4Attack44.4
47.2Defence72.2
43.1Form65.3
48.3Power63.4
0.88xG1.35