Samtrediavs
Aragvi Dusheti
COMPLETEDGeorgia · Erovnuli Liga 2 · 10/17/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Samtredia · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-0 (11%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Samtredia 0-1 Aragvi Dusheti
Original prediction
Samtredia
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 20:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.27 | 72.1% | 64.5% | -7.6 pts |
| Draw | 5.17 | 17.7% | 19.6% | 1.9 pts |
| Away | 8.95 | 10.2% | 15.9% | 5.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–011%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Samtredia
Probability
64.5%
Model confidence
64.5%
Samtredia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 15 · GA 4 · avg 3.00/0.80
GF 7 · GA 13 · avg 1.40/2.60