Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Catanzaro · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sampdoria 2-1 Catanzaro
Original prediction
Catanzaro
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.03 | 45.8% | 33.0% | -12.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.31 | 28.0% | 27.1% | -0.9 pts |
| Away | 3.54 | 26.2% | 39.9% | 13.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Catanzaro
Probability
39.9%
Model confidence
39.9%
Catanzaro has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SampdoriaLLLDL
GF 3 · GA 10 · avg 0.60/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
CatanzaroWLLLD
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
SampdoriaCatanzaro
16.7Attack53.7
16.7Defence52.8
0.0Form52.0
18.3Power54.1
1.13xG1.70