Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sampdoria · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sampdoria 1-2 Arezzo
Original prediction
Sampdoria
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 06:37 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.78 | 52.2% | 43.4% | -8.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.52 | 26.4% | 25.6% | -0.9 pts |
| Away | 4.34 | 21.4% | 31.1% | 9.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Sampdoria
Probability
43.4%
Model confidence
43.4%
Sampdoria has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SampdoriaLWLLL
GF 5 · GA 12 · avg 1.00/2.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
ArezzoDLLWL
GF 2 · GA 11 · avg 0.40/2.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
SampdoriaArezzo
33.3Attack33.3
27.8Defence27.8
22.2Form38.9
31.5Power36.4
1.50xG1.34