Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Benevento · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (14%), 3-0 (12%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction details
Prediction record created 1 October 2026 at 12:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: -| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.60 | 58.2% | 71.4% | 13.2 pts |
| Draw | 4.08 | 22.8% | 17.0% | -5.8 pts |
| Away | 4.89 | 19.0% | 11.6% | -7.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 - · Draw - · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–014%
- 2.3–012%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Benevento
Probability
71.4%
Model confidence
71.4%
Benevento has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BeneventoWDWLW
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
CatanzaroLDLLW
GF 6 · GA 13 · avg 1.20/2.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
BeneventoCatanzaro
54.2Attack37.5
70.8Defence16.7
58.3Form16.7
61.8Power26.9
2.64xG0.63