Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Rustavi · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (14%), 1-1 (13%), 0-2 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Samgurali 1-1 Rustavi
Original prediction
Rustavi
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.88 | 31.3% | 22.5% | -8.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.10 | 29.1% | 25.3% | -3.8 pts |
| Away | 2.28 | 39.5% | 52.3% | 12.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.10 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–114%
- 2.1–113%
- 3.0–212%
Predicted outcome
Rustavi
Probability
52.3%
Model confidence
52.3%
Rustavi has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SamguraliLWLWW
GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
RustaviWWWWW
GF 11 · GA 1 · avg 2.20/0.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
SamguraliRustavi
47.0Attack43.9
39.4Defence72.7
47.0Form62.1
46.7Power61.2
0.79xG1.52