Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Samgurali · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (12%), 2-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Samgurali 2-0 Meshakhte
Original prediction
Samgurali
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 20:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.54 | 58.6% | 60.2% | 1.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.82 | 23.6% | 21.9% | -1.7 pts |
| Away | 5.07 | 17.8% | 17.8% | 0.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.54 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.2–011%
Predicted outcome
Samgurali
Probability
60.2%
Model confidence
60.2%
Samgurali has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SamguraliWLLLL
GF 9 · GA 11 · avg 1.80/2.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
MeshakhteLDLDD
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
SamguraliMeshakhte
48.8Attack25.0
38.1Defence45.2
41.7Form20.2
44.8Power32.9
1.79xG0.87