Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Samgurali · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Samgurali 3-0 Gagra
Original prediction
Samgurali
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 17:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.95 | 46.2% | 45.2% | -1.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.34 | 27.0% | 25.7% | -1.3 pts |
| Away | 3.35 | 26.8% | 29.1% | 2.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.95 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Samgurali
Probability
45.2%
Model confidence
45.2%
Samgurali has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SamguraliLLLLD
GF 7 · GA 12 · avg 1.40/2.40
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
GagraDLDLW
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
SamguraliGagra
46.9Attack30.9
35.8Defence54.3
39.5Form35.8
43.1Power42.7
1.39xG1.08