Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Dila · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (12%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Samgurali 1-3 Dila
Original prediction
Dila
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.76 | 32.5% | 29.4% | -3.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.02 | 29.7% | 26.7% | -3.0 pts |
| Away | 2.37 | 37.8% | 43.9% | 6.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.37 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Dila
Probability
43.9%
Model confidence
43.9%
Dila has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SamguraliLDLWL
GF 7 · GA 12 · avg 1.40/2.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
DilaWLWDW
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
SamguraliDila
45.8Attack40.6
40.3Defence65.2
44.4Form47.8
45.8Power53.0
1.01xG1.35