Salford Cityvs
Swindon Town
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 9/19/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Salford City · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Salford City 1-0 Swindon Town
Original prediction
Salford City
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.50 | 61.6% | 45.2% | -16.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.30 | 21.5% | 24.9% | 3.4 pts |
| Away | 5.44 | 17.0% | 29.9% | 12.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.50 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-16.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–09%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Salford City
Probability
45.2%
Model confidence
45.2%
Salford City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20