Salford Cityvs
Port Vale
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 9/5/2026, 11:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Salford City · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 1-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Salford City 1-0 Port Vale
Original prediction
Salford City
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.82 | 50.9% | 40.4% | -10.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.57 | 26.0% | 29.5% | 3.5 pts |
| Away | 4.02 | 23.1% | 30.0% | 6.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.82 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–012%
- 3.1–012%
Predicted outcome
Salford City
Probability
40.4%
Model confidence
40.4%
Salford City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
GF 2 · GA 9 · avg 0.40/1.80