Rotherhamvs
Newport County
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 10/20/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Newport County · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (13%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Rotherham 2-2 Newport County
Original prediction
Newport County
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.17 | 43.0% | 30.3% | -12.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.31 | 28.1% | 26.7% | -1.5 pts |
| Away | 3.23 | 28.9% | 43.1% | 14.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.31 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
14.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–113%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Newport County
Probability
43.1%
Model confidence
43.1%
Newport County has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 12 · avg 0.40/2.40
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80