Rotherhamvs
Chesterfield
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 8/29/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Chesterfield · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (11%), 0-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Rotherham 2-1 Chesterfield
Original prediction
Chesterfield
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.91 | 31.8% | 34.2% | 2.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.34 | 27.8% | 28.7% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 2.30 | 40.4% | 37.1% | -3.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.0–110%
Predicted outcome
Chesterfield
Probability
37.1%
Model confidence
37.1%
Chesterfield has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20