Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Rostov II · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Rostov II 4-0 Pobeda
Original prediction
Rostov II
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:59 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.98 | 45.8% | 55.9% | 10.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.42 | 26.6% | 22.0% | -4.6 pts |
| Away | 3.30 | 27.6% | 22.1% | -5.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.98 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Rostov II
Probability
55.9%
Model confidence
55.9%
Rostov II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Rostov IIDDWWW
GF 11 · GA 2 · avg 2.20/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
PobedaWLLWW
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Rostov IIPobeda
71.7Attack66.7
70.0Defence59.3
71.7Form55.6
70.7Power58.9
1.94xG1.05