Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Rostov II · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Rostov II 2-1 Kyzyltash
Original prediction
Rostov II
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 19:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.85 | 49.1% | 53.3% | 4.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.58 | 25.3% | 23.8% | -1.5 pts |
| Away | 3.54 | 25.6% | 22.9% | -2.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.85 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–010%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Rostov II
Probability
53.3%
Model confidence
53.3%
Rostov II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Rostov IIWDLDL
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
KyzyltashWDWLW
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Rostov IIKyzyltash
64.2Attack59.3
69.1Defence55.6
66.7Form54.3
66.0Power56.5
1.88xG0.97