Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Roma W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Roma W 3-1 Lazio W
Original prediction
Roma W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.36 | 66.5% | 50.8% | -15.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.66 | 19.5% | 25.0% | 5.5 pts |
| Away | 6.49 | 14.0% | 24.2% | 10.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.36 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Roma W
Probability
50.8%
Model confidence
50.8%
Roma W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Roma WLWDDW
GF 12 · GA 10 · avg 2.40/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
Lazio WDLWWL
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Roma WLazio W
100.0Attack0.0
66.7Defence100.0
100.0Form33.3
88.7Power45.3
1.83xG1.10