Rochdalevs
Swindon Town
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 10/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Rochdale · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 1-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Rochdale 1-0 Swindon Town
Original prediction
Rochdale
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 09:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.23 | 41.7% | 38.4% | -3.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.48 | 26.7% | 29.7% | 3.0 pts |
| Away | 2.94 | 31.6% | 31.9% | 0.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.23 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–012%
- 3.1–012%
Predicted outcome
Rochdale
Probability
38.4%
Model confidence
38.4%
Rochdale has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
GF 2 · GA 10 · avg 0.40/2.00