Rochdalevs
Shrewsbury
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 9/1/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Rochdale · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (10%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Rochdale 3-0 Shrewsbury
Original prediction
Rochdale
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.19 | 42.4% | 37.2% | -5.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.39 | 27.5% | 27.9% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 3.09 | 30.1% | 34.9% | 4.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.19 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–010%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Rochdale
Probability
37.2%
Model confidence
37.2%
Rochdale has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
RochdaleLLLLD
GF 3 · GA 10 · avg 0.60/2.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
ShrewsburyWLLLD
GF 3 · GA 10 · avg 0.60/2.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
RochdaleShrewsbury
11.1Attack22.2
33.3Defence44.4
0.0Form33.3
19.2Power37.2
1.22xG1.25