Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Oldham · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (13%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Rochdale 2-0 Oldham
Original prediction
Oldham
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.64 | 25.4% | 26.9% | 1.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.49 | 26.5% | 26.9% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 1.92 | 48.1% | 46.2% | -1.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–113%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Oldham
Probability
46.2%
Model confidence
46.2%
Oldham has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
RochdaleDLWLL
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
OldhamLLDWL
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
RochdaleOldham
27.8Attack44.4
44.4Defence61.1
22.2Form38.9
32.9Power48.4
0.93xG1.36